The Watchlist Trap
Abstract
A watchlist records a form of attention prior work could not see: a self-authored, dated commitment to follow a stock, made before any purchase. Using 28,990 Chinese retail investors whose every purchase is linked to a timestamped watchlist entry, I show that the stocks investors watch but do not buy outperform the stocks they buy — yet among purchases, those routed through the watchlist (warm) underperform purchases made on sight (cold) by 234 basis points of characteristic-adjusted return over the next sixty trading days. The list’s signal is good; the trap is in the conversion from watching to buying. Roughly 45% of the gap reflects composition — watched purchases carry more costly speculative tendencies. The surviving mechanism for the rest is reference-dependent conversion: the daily first-purchase hazard changes slope sharply as the price crosses the level at which the stock was added and the extremes witnessed while it waited.